Indonesia’s 2024 Election Landscape: Economics, Geopolitics, and Succession Challenges
In 2024, amidst one of history’s biggest global election seasons involving over four billion voters, Indonesia stands out as the host of the most extensive single-day election. On February 14th, 205 million Indonesians spanning 17,000 islands will choose the eighth president, succeeding Joko (Jokowi) Widodo. The significance of these elections in Southeast Asia’s economic powerhouse extends well beyond regional borders.
Resource-Rich Powerhouse
Indonesia will be one of the world’s largest economies by 2040 and plays a crucial role in the current geopolitical landscape due to its natural resources, size and strategic location. The country boasts rich natural resources, including natural gas, textiles, coal, palm oil, iron alloys, and stainless steel. Furthermore, sometimes dubbed as the Saudi Arabia of nickel, Indonesia holds the world’s largest reserves of this vital metal. Given Indonesia’s wealth in natural resources and the pivotal role of nickel in the shift from fossil fuels, diverse actors are eager to have access to the country. Yet, the current economic growth originates from a significant emphasis on infrastructure development rather than relying solely on natural resources. President Joko Widodo drove expansive infrastructure development, including airports, ports, power plants, dams, and thousands of kilometres of roads and railways. His biggest project involves building a new capital, Nusantara, from the ground up in East Borneo’s jungle.
While acknowledging Indonesia’s potential, it’s crucial to address its weaknesses as well. Under Widodo’s leadership, China has emerged as the key partner in Indonesia’s predominantly domestic-centered and economically focused foreign policy. However, the aim of economic development and concerns over Chinese economic dominance have stirred discontent in Indonesia, placing Jakarta in a delicate balancing act between China and the United States. Consequently, Indonesia chooses autonomy over alignment. Its refusal to join the BRICS mirrors this pragmatic approach to foreign policy.
Concerns persist not only about Indonesia’s proximity to China but also about the state of its democracy. Indonesia’s democracy seems hollow, marked by high levels of corruption, weakened civil societies, imprisonment of opponents, the killing of environmental activists, and press repression. Concerns over democracy were amplified during Widodo’s leadership, marked by his pursuit of a political dynasty.
Jokowi’s Succession Politics
Despite his ineligibility for re-election, Joko Widodo’s enduring 80% popularity in polls empowers him to mould his successor’s candidacy. In a strategic move, he ensured that his son would become Prabowo Subianto’s running mate. Moreover, Widodo seems to enable his son and Subianto to receive assistance from state institutions. As a result, the current Indonesian Minister of Defense, Prabowo Subianto, leads the polls. His association with massacres, disappearances, and anti-democratic tendencies makes him a controversial figure.
However, leading contenders Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan face slim chances of challenging Prabowo Subianto. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that Subianto will secure victory in the first round, given the legal requirement for a presidential and vice-presidential pair to obtain at least 50 per cent of the national vote and at least 20 per cent in each province. However, the July 2024 runoff between the top contenders seems to become a victory for Prabowo Subianto.
Prospects and Challenges
Should Prabowo Subianto assume the presidency in Indonesia, it’s anticipated that Jokowi’s policy framework will persist, although there might be more emphasis on security matters. Accordingly, Indonesia is expected to juggle diplomatic ties between Washington and Beijing. However, caution remains for the European Union. Despite the current negations for an EU-Indonesia Free Trade Agreement, Subianto recently stated that Indonesia does not ‘’really need Europe any more’’. The EU-Indonesia relationship faces challenges over disputes regarding nickel and palm oil. Indonesia has accused the EU of engaging in regulatory imperialism, quoting the EU’s recent import regulations targeting palm oil and related deforestation concerns.
All of this does not necessarily indicate a decline in the EU’s influence in Indonesia. A recent study by Carnegie Europe indicates that the Indonesian general public, particularly the younger generation, does not perceive the EU as a threat. This demographic appears less influenced by historical issues and tends to view Europe and the EU more positively. While the EU emphasises the deepening of its relationship with Indonesia in recent years, this study suggests that the partnership should extend beyond economic interests. Nevertheless, it remains uncertain if Indonesia under Subianto would express interest in pursuing such a partnership.
